National League: The Title Race 🏆

In this blog, I will be reviewing the promotion race in the National League, at the halfway stage of the 2024/25 season. I will take a deep, researched look at each side in the Top 7 AT THE TIME OF WRITING, whilst explaining their chances of winning the title. I will then come up with a conclusion for the overall promotion race.

* Blog is written at the time of the top photo!*

Enjoy the read! I appreciate any shares for this piece of work on my website. I’d also be interested in hearing your thoughts on the National League title race.

York City

We start the core bit of this blog with the current league leaders, York City, who have had a tremendous first twenty-four games of the National League season, under Adam Hinshelwood, who is building a fantastic, attacking outfit at the LNER.

After a dreadful first season in the “Uggla era” at York, it looks as though lessons have been learnt and mistakes have been corrected, as the Minstermen lead the way, sitting on 51 points! The professionalism and structure at York has been thought through and improved for their promotion push this season. Recruitment has been superb – quality has been brought in the correct areas, to strengthen their squad.

It’s easy to say “If you spend the most money, you should be top of the league”, but you still have to do things correctly. They are clearly planning for future years, proven by the permanent signings of 22 year-old central defender, Malachi Fagan-Walcott, from Cardiff City on a 4-year deal and the signing of 21 year-old forward, Josh Stones, for a reported fee of £350,000!

They have a superb, young manager in Adam Hinshelwood. Someone who plays wonderful, attacking football, entertaining fans and scoring plenty of goals – 48 in the National League (2 goals per game). One criticism I had of Hinshelwood, from his time at Worthing, is how open his defence was; having a lack of defensive structure probably cost The Rebels in some vital moments last season. However, it seems as though he has improved on that this season, with City conceding less than a goal a game so far, having the joint best defence in the league. This is massively helped by the superb central defenders at the club; Callum Howe and Malachi Walcott are playing key roles in that side!

The attacking quality in the side is matched with quantity as well; forwards such as Lenell John-Lewis, Dipo Akinyemi and Luca Thomas support the incredible Ollie Pearce, who already has 15 goals for City! Not only is it the quality through the middle for York, their wide players; David Ajiboye, Tyrese Sinclair and Ashley Nathaniel-George offer such brilliance on the wings with their energy and direct play. They have just signed Josh Stones from Wigan Athletic on a permanent transfer to bolster their attacking numbers further.

Having spoke about the excellence of their players at either end of the pitch, I feel that I would be disrespecting THAT midfield if I didn’t give it a mention. Dan Batty and Alex Hunt make up a strong double-pivot, keeping the game ticking, while the energetic Marcus Armstrong brings real athleticism to their midfield. Ricky Aguiar adds some great depth as well!

I feel that the current table-toppers have the best chance of winning the league because of their consistent ruthlessness and quality all over the pitch. They show no signs of slowing down and may still improve their squad further. The balance in that squad is perfect!

It’s hard to look past that side!

Forest Green Rovers

Onto the current second place side in the National League; Forest Green Rovers, who have lost the least games in the league so far this season (2) and are currently on an unbeaten run of 13 games, since losing 1-0 at Boundary Park, against a solid Oldham side.

Following back-to-back relegations, from League One, all the way down to The National League, Forest Green are responding in the perfect way by being difficult to beat and consistent to do there best in getting out of this league. They have been excellent so far this season; 50 points from 24 games is a fantastic return of just over 2 points per game! The biggest problem for Rovers is the teams around them, such as York and Barnet.

I think the biggest downfall at Forest Green is that they don’t really have that one, out-and-out, true goalscorer up top who can hit 20-25 goals in the campaign. They have threats such as Doidge, McCann and Kyle McAllister who may all score around 15 for the season, I don’t think they have a proper goalscorer at the club currently.

The main strength at Forest Green is how difficult they have made themselves to beat this season. Just 20 goals conceded in 24 games so far; losing just twice in that time, against Barnet and Oldham, two sides in the top 5, away from home! They have an excellent defensive structure, thanks to manager, Steve Cotterill, who sets Rovers up to be solid defensively, focusing on winnings duels across the pitch.

Their recruitment supported this excellently, bringing in a mixture of experience and youth to support the physical side of things. The defensive signings or Ben Tozer and Sean Long gave them extra support alongside Ryan Innis and Jordan Moore-Taylor, who were already at the club.

The midfield is an area where Forest Green have an abundance of technicians, who keep the game ticking over and create chances for the attacking players. Liam Sercombe, Adam May, Emmanuel Osadebe, Charlie McCann and Harvey Bunker make up for an excellent unit across the midfield, giving them strength, power, technical brilliance and a goal threat from McCann and Bunker!

I think Forest Green are an excellent side but out of the current Top 3, I feel they are the weakest; purely because of style and a lack of a true goalscoring number 9! They seem to grind out results, despite playing poorly but that may not happen against the better sides.

Barnet FC

Next up we head down to North London, to The Hive, where Dean Brennan’s Barnet sit 3rd in The National League, joint on points with Forest Green (50), but playing 1 more game than Rovers. The Bees have scored 51 goals and conceded 30.

Barnet were definitely the preseason favourites for most people, including myself, their recruitment looked excellent IF everyone could’ve been kept fit. That was the gamble that Brennan and co. took at the start of the season but they’ve had a couple of injuries to cost them in vital moments. They’ve still had a good first half of this season anyway.

Brennan has been an excellent manager for Barnet, working his way through non-league with Billericay and Wealdstone, before joining The Bees. He’s managed 179 games, at the time of writing, winning just under 50% of them. His main focus and style is to dominate possession, completely out-passing the opposition, before displaying free-flowing, quick football, in the final third. This has worked excellent for Barnet but they do concede a lot of goals. That’s just the nature of Brennan’s style.

They have quality all over the pitch, in numbers as well; Barnet have a massive squad, full of good players. The goalkeeping of Nick Hayes has been questioned at times this season; the former Solihull goalkeeper makes the odd mistake, costing his side. In reaction to this, they signed Owen Evans, on loan from Cheltenham, for the remainder of the season.

I think Barnet may be quiet on incomings for the remainder of this season; the defensive and midfield options are absolutely stacked with quality. Zak Brunt and Anthony Hartigan are two of the better midfields in the National League; they are the mainstays in the midfield, with the third option being rotated. The Bees play a back 5, this is rotated around between 8-9 players. They will naturally concede goals because of the style but they do have an excellent defensive unit.

The area that Barnet do need to improve in is the forward position; Callum Stead and Nicke Kabamba are brilliant strikers for The National League but they could do with another goal-scoring body in there.

I think Barnet have the overall quality and manager to stay in touch with the title race throughout the season, winning the big games against title rivals could push them over the line.

They are certainly one of the contenders…

Gateshead FC

The most Northern team in the National League take up fourth spot at the level at the halfway stage of the 2024/25 season, under their second manager of the season, former Carlisle United assistant coach, Carl Magnay. He replaced Rob Elliott, after the former Newcastle United goalkeeper moved to Crawley Town, in League One.

Magnay has made an excellent impact at Gateshead, coaching the side to play similar football that was used under Mike Williamson and Rob Elliott in the preview few seasons. The Heed are suited to a 3-5-2 formation, utilising a very possession-heavy, attacking style, seeing them score the second most goals in the league, whilst have an average possession of 63.8%.

One downfall for Gateshead in the second half of this season could be the factor of how costly this January transfer window has been to their playing squad, despite being just a third of the way through it. Key players, Callum Whelan, Owen Oseni and Ben Radcliffe have all left the club in the opening days of this window, with reports that star player, Regan Booty could leave as well. The clubs recruitment has been excellent over recent seasons but the stature of player that has left could cost the clubs position.

The four players previously mentioned have been massively key to the clubs success this season. Ben Radcliffe is a superb defender, that Gateshead had on loan from Derby. He’s excellent on the ball and has a physical profile well above his age. Callum Whelan and Regan Booty were/are two of the best midfielders in the National League, they really allowed Gateshead to play the desired football to create chances. Those chances were consistently finished by 21 year-old forward, Owen Oseni, who scored 13 goals in just 24 National League games. He left Gateshead for Scottish side, St Mirren, for a reported fee of £65.000.

I still feel that the club has enough quality on the pitch to stay in the playoffs for the rest of the season and I have no doubt that they will recruit excellently, as they always do. However, I feel that they may drop a couple of places, Oldham have many games in hand and Solihull are picking up some serious form!

Another potential issue for Gateshead is the amount of goals they have conceded so far this season (32 in 25 games). That number ranks 12th in the National League, losing Ben Radcliffe could affect this further, if a replacement isn’t found quickly.

Oldham Athletic

The biggest club in the league take up the 5th place spot in the league at this stage of the season, Oldham Athletic are the only former Premier League club to be relegated out of the football league, that is before Swindon potentially do it this season!!

The Latics have had a very solid season, in an extremely competitive National League campaign, at the half way stage they sit on 44 points, with 2 games in hand on the teams above them, meaning they can jump to 3rd, if they win both games.

Michael Mellon is an excellent manager for Oldham, who has experience of gaining promotion out of the National League previously, when he won via the playoffs in the 2017/18 season, after finishing second behind Macclesfield. They are a side who play less of a possession based style, going more direct up to their big forwards, James Norwood and Mike Fondop. Oldham have complete just 238 passes on average per 90 this season, ranking 19th in the National League. Whereas, they complete the fourth most longballs per 90 (31.3).

The main core of the Oldham Athletic squad is built of some superb players who have proven their qualities in the National League or Football League previously such as Manny Monthe, Charlie Raglan, Sam Clucas, Tom Conlon and James Norwood. It’s a squad full of promotions and playoff successes. Oldham fans will be hoping that those experiences can help push the club back into the Football League, where they belong (at a minimum).

The side have an excellent defensive record, conceding just 21 goals in 23 games so far in the National League this season, helping the fact that they’ve lost just 3 games throughout the whole campaign. They’ve scored the sixth most goals in the league so far – 41 – but I think that needs to improve if they are to push for promotion. Mike Fondop is The Latics top scorer this season but he has scored just 9 goals in 21 games, which is good but not excellent!

In Oldham’s recent game against Hartlepool United, in which they lost 2-1, the average age of their starting eleven was 29.1, which included 21 year-old forward Josh Stones, who has since left the club and signed for title rivals, York City. This has its benefits including experience and know-how. However, it could come costly with injuries and physical demands and the latter stages of the season.

I have mentioned the loss of Josh Stoned, who scored 8 goals in 12 National League appearances for the club, across two spells, on loan from Wigan Athletic. He has since been sold to York City on a permanent deal, with the Minstermen paying a reported six-figure-fee for the 21 year-old. Two more potential departures are former Stoke City midfielder, Sam Clucas, who has a clause in his contract, allowing him to leave for free. Alex Reid is also on his way out, after being out of favour at Oldham.

With all the experience in The Latics squad, I think they will have a superb second half of the season and push for the title against Forest Green, York and Barnet.

Solihull Moors

As we come to our penultimate club in this blog piece we have a side who have made the playoffs on a few occasions since the 2018/19 season, 3 times to be specific, including making the final twice, against Grimsby and Bromley last season, losing on penalties after an enthralling 2-2 draw.

After an inconsistent start to the 2024/25 campaign, it looked as thought The Moors were going to struggle to reach the playoffs this time around, but after a run of three losses in fourteen games, they have found themselves on 41 points after 15 games, scoring 45 goals, conceding 36!

Andy Whing is a name I fully recommend readers getting to know over the next 6-12 months in the National League. Solihull Moors appointed the former Banbury United manager because of his exciting, attacking style of play. It’s certainly entertaining; They are the fourth best goal-scorers in the division (45 in 25) but have the 16th worst defensive record, conceding 36 goals in the same amount of games! They have had a few games finish with over 6 goals in this season, meaning they are an exciting team for the neutrals!

Similar to Oldham, The Moors could lose one or two over the course of the January transfer window. Winger and star player, Jack Stevens is deserving of a move into the EFL, potentially even League One, after a superb start to his National League campaign, with the 24 year-old having 11 goals and 4 assists in just 19 appearances this season! On the flip-side, if Solihull manage to keep hold of the former Banbury man, they certainly boost their chances of pushing deeper into the playoffs.

I’ve waxed lyrical about Solihull’s superb front-line in this part of my blog but I will continue to do so, especially after they announced the signing of Wolverhampton Wanderers U21 forward, Fletcher Holman, on loan for the reminder of the season. The 20 year-old striker has been excellent for the Premier League 2 side this season, scoring 10 goals in 20 games! He will make a superb partner for Conor Wilkinson in that wonderful Moors frontline.

Solihull certainly have an impressive squad, the likes of captain Jamey Osbourne, goalkeeper Laurie Walker and two defenders, Alex Whitmore and James Clarke make up the core of a superb National League squad.

The Moors should make the playoffs fairly comfortably come the end of the season, it’s whether they can find promotion at the fourth attempt!

Rochdale AFC

After almost 3000 words of writing, we come to our final team of my National League promotion race blog! Dale fans have been through years of hurt and worry that they may not even have a club to support anymore but luckily they were taken over last season, pumping new life and energy into the club.

Jim McNulty’s side have been brilliant at times this season but also a bit inconsistent, losing sevens of their opening 22 matches. That’s almost a loss every 3 games! If anything is going to be the downfall for Dale it will be the fact they don’t score enough goals, which leads to losing more games.

Rochdale have been excellent in the defensive areas of the pitch; the back-three of Kyron Gordon, Liam Hogan/Ebanks-Landell and Sam Beckwith has been absolutely fantastic for McNulty’s side.

Improvements are definitely needed across the squad but especially in the creative midfield and attacking areas of the pitch. Kairo Mitchell has had a good season for Dale, scoring 11 goals in 20 games. However, just two of them have come in his previous 7 National League games, in his recent fixture against AFC Fylde.

One of Rochdale’s best technical players is Tanzanian wingback/winger, Tarryn Allarakhia. I have shared my appreciation for the 27 year-old on many occasions before; his ability to get at his man and go either way gives him the edge in 1-on-1 situations. They need more players like him in their squad.

Rochdale’s position in my predictions could fluctuate massively, depending on what sort of recruitment they do over the next few weeks.

Conclusion

Here we are! After previewing all seven clubs who currently fill the playoffs of the National League, I am coming to my conclusion, where I will be predicting how the Top Seven will look come the final day of this incredible season, on the 5th of May!

1st – York City (Champions)

Best squad in the league for me and the most interesting manager tactically; clear winners for me. The signing of Josh Stones will certainly help their chances of the title and they could still strengthen their squad!

2nd – Barnet FC

Impressive squad and I do really like Dean Brennan as a manger but York will have too much for The Bees in my opinion. They have see Lee Ndlovu but still need a defender.

3rd – Forest Green Rovers

They have struggled in recent weeks, conceding some silly goals. They seem to be creating lots less chances now and missing Charlie McCann massively.

4th – Oldham Athletic (Playoff W)

Superb, experienced squad; I think they’ll have an excellent second half to this season and they are my playoff winners. Winning manager and winning players.

5th – Solihull Moors

Great attacking squad and manager. If they keep Jack Stevens they will have a very good second half of the season because of the attacking quality. I haven’t put them any higher because they concede too many.

6th – Gateshead FC

I’m worried about Gateshead; three players out already and Regan Booty on his way. That could cost them the playoffs but I trust their recruitment enough to bring in some fantastic replacements. I feel they may slip a few places though.

7th – Rochdale AFC

I’ve gone with the same Top Seven as the current one. Big gap between these seven sides and below for me! Another good, underrated side. Don’t concede many goals and should keep hold of Kairo Mitchell. One season too early for me! They will also play every Tuesday at the end of the season.

Thankyou!

I would love to hear your predictions of what the Top Seven will look like in the National League this season?

Thankyou for reading. As I previously mentioned, I’d appreciate any feedback or support on this piece. Any shares would be massively appreciated as well!